By Nenad Radicevic

Serbia and other countries of the South-Eastern Europe have hardly avoided being in complete darkness during the gas crisis - recently was posted on the European Internet portal Euractiv. However, no local politician has denied this news. According to the European Commission expert, who insisted on anonymity, "electricity systems in all the region countries were on the brink of cracking and their being able to cope and fight the crisis and remain stable was a very pleasant surprise." In spite of the local officials` silence, independent energy expert Zorana Mihajlovic Milanovic has confirmed the thesis that the complete electricity shortage in the region was avoided miraculously.

According to the European energy experts, during the gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine, there was a huge risk for the tiniest incident in one of big electricity grids in South-Eastern Europe - such as those of Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria - to provoke cascade problem broadening, including darkening of the whole region.

That complete darkness would have been far bigger than the one in November 2006 when the energy problem in Germany left millions of people in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Italy, and Spain without electricity.

Unnamed European Commission expert has told the Euractiv the biggest risk had been during the two coldest days at the beginning of the January crisis, before the local heating stations have switched from gas to petrol.

In spite of huge electricity consumption, electro-energetic systems have managed to fight the pressure. Gabriela Cretu, the Energy Community Treaty expert, says that the grids at that moment benefited from the economic slowdown, due to the global crisis, and electricity consumption was therefore not so high.

"Moreover, the gas crisis took place during a period of winter holidays, with less activity in the economy and production," Cretu explained adding that hydrology was good at the time of the crisis, which had positive effect on the stability of electro-energetic system. 

According to Zorana Mihajlovic Milanovic, the whole region lacks energy production capacities. However, Serbia`s not being involved in the acute state is noticeable. She also wants to remind us that upon the Energy Community of South-Eastern Europe founding in 2001, the European Union dedicated 15 billion euros for the whole region production stability and electricity supplying improvement by 2012.

"All the countries in the region are in one of the three phases of energy capacities improvement except Serbia that has still not commenced work on even the first phase. In case we do not do anything until 2012, we shall jeopardise both the whole region and our own energy security since the necessary investments in the underground gas storage `Banatski Dvor` will not be completed by then and, therefore, it could not help maintaining energy system in possible new gas crisis," explains Mihajlovic Milanovic.

She points out that countries such as Croatia and Albania even consider nuclear power plant construction while Serbia has not even started to invest in the existing electrical power systems (already planned works in thermal power stations "Kolubara" and "Nikola Tesla B").

"The agreement on energy community is the first real agreement between Serbia and the European Union and the first important step towards the European integrations. The EU also finds this agreement important because both Serbia and the whole region are significant transit area. Unfortunately, Serbia has not started yet with fulfilling its obligations stated in this agreement, such as renewable energy use stimulation and giving new concessions for small hydroelectric power stations construction," says Mihajlovic Milanovic adding that still nothing has been done regarding the Electric Power Industry of Serbia (Elektroprivreda Srbije) market monopoly.

"Serbia is the only country in the region that has not handed down the investment plan in June 2008, i.e., the planned dates for the completion of investments in power supply infrastructure, the obligation it has undertaken. For this and many other reasons, Serbia is in the rear of this process and risks to become electrical and energy island in the region. This has happened once when the United Nations imposed sanctions to the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia," says Zorana Mihajlovic Milanovic.

Unless Serbia improves its system as a member of the Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity in case of electricity problems, it can expect the help of its neighbours. However, at the same time, this kind of connection could entail great electricity problems in the whole region in case Serbia possibly had drastic failure of the electrical power system.