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REFORMS TO AVOID THE “GREEK SCENARIO”
2010-06-08 00:30:17
economy

By CEV Magazine team

It is impossible to end up with the crisis using the same economic model which was used before the collapse.  It is realised and emphasised by various economists, from Washington and Brussels to Tokyo and Beijing. The sobering shall be a painful process particularly for Serbia, yet not as much as it would be expected. The Summit of leading economists and ministers, bankers and governors in the elite Serbian ski centre Kopaonik, organised by Association of Serbian Economists, may be a turn point in managing the economy. Economic growth based on increased public spending, mostly through privatisation income or indebtedness, is silently ignored for two reasons.


First, it is because there is northing more worth privatising, and the other reason is because the external indebtedness has reached the highest level, which is why the so called "Greek scenario" threatens our country.

According to professor Dragan Djuricic, the president of the Association of Serbian Economists, a country is considered to be indebted if the debt surpasses 80 percent of gross domestic income, and Serbia has reached 71 percent up to now, and also if the debt is 220 percent greater than the country`s total export, which in Serbia`s case it amounts 295 percent. He stresses that instead on public spending, a demand must depend on investments.

As Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic has explained, Serbia faces with two quite opposite challenges. On the one side, Serbia has to restrain public spending, and on the other it has to encourage domestic demands in order to maintain employment.

"On the one hand, we have a model, which offers a short-term solution for resolving problems caused by the global economic crisis, for despite the increment of our economy the unemployment is rising. Given that the 2010 will statistically be a better year, which however will not have any obvious impact on people`s lives, the national government has no alternative but to take social aspect into consideration and to encourage the additional demands so as to help people," Cvetkovic added.

But these are short-term solutions. Serbia has to seek the way of changing its course. Many foreign ambassadors accredited in Belgrade have also tried to provide answers to these challenges, during a recently held conference "Invest in Serbia 2010".

"Serbia`s rivals act aggressive, but it does not imply that the chances for further development are insignificant. Serbia has to carry through the privatisation and to turn to greenfield investments.  That is the only way leading to encouragement of the export economy. Resolving the problems of restitution is an important issue for Serbia as well, for investors should feel safe while investing their money," Mary Warlick, US Ambassador in Belgrade, announced.

Spanish Ambassador Inigo de Palacio Espana said that the businessmen coming from Spain are interested in investing in renewable energy resources, for Spain is one of the leading countries regarding this field. Spanish investors offer their rich experience, concerning utilising wind and solar energies, managing the waste and biofuel production.

"The lack of efficient legal frame is Serbia`s major disadvantage, and that fact discourages potential investors. I believe that it would be best for Serbia to start with the implementation of acquis communautaire (EU law), for it would certainly send a positive signal to those who are willing to invest in your country."

Just 35 years ago Spain`s gross national income was equal to former Yugoslavia`s, which indicates that it is possible to carry out reforms in a short period of time.

Italian Ambassador Armando Varricchio believes that the economic decentralisation is a very important issue for Serbia, that municipalities should manage their own properties, and that the local clusters, which would be recognised both by investors and abroad, should be formed.

"Economic development cannot be possible without bringing great players to domestic market, for they are the only one who have the power to engage a significant number of co-operators. The presence of Fiat in Serbia is a good example. The result is that now many Italian companies consider an idea of transferring their manufactures from other EU countries into Serbia," Varricchio said.

German Ambassador Wolfram Maas has specifically named all imperfections that make Serbian economy incompetent on global scene.

"A country is pretty indebted, budget and foreign trade deficiencies are more than obvious, corruption and massive bureaucracy are enormous problems government still faces with. I am familiar with the fact that although many difficult tasks are still left to be solved, Serbia has already adopted some important decisions," Maas concludes.

Clemens Koja, Ambassador of Austria in Serbia, has mentioned that a large number of businessmen, working in Serbia, deal with lazy bureaucracy and complicated procedures relating issuing a wide range of permissions, which is discouraging for someone who is willing to invest in Serbia.

Finances cannot be attracted neither by the low income taxes, nor by the facts that the banks are stable and that 55 percent of whole Serbian trade is carried out with EU. Corruption is something Serbia cannot be proud of. Without efficient administration and equal conditions for all, there would be no significant investment in the near future.

The agenda is clear and the problem is fully recognised. It is still uncertain will Serbian government find the political courage for dealing with these problems at all cost, or shall the mixture of cheap populism and economic reforms remain as its mark.

* CEV Magazine is an online publication of the Centre for European Values. (Photo: European Union, 2010)


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