"The feasibility of pipeline projects, such are Nabucco or South Stream, is based on two important criteria. First, gas reserves enough for the next 25 years exploitation at least. Second - reliable gas consumers. The fact is that Nabucco has no gas reserves, and the gas pipeline will not be constructed until energy resources are guaranteed", explains Ebel.
According to his words, the same problem occurred with the South Stream gas pipeline, the building of which has already been postponed for at least two years (instead of in 2013, it won`t become operative before 2015). Officially, the reason for that decision is increase of the construction costs from 10 to 15 billion euros, due to the metal price rise in consequence of financial crisis. CSIS`s experts believe, however, that the fact that Russia cannot count on gas reserves for supplying South Stream is essential reason for delay; and that Russia attempts to purchase energy from Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in order to resell it in Europe.
If Russians rely on ex-Soviet republics, is there an European Plan B in Nabucco case? It could be Iran. That country is certainly rich with oil and gas reserves, but has no money to invest in researches and exploitation, and thus looses trustworth buyers due to political tensions. Therefore, Nabucco would eventually succeed if this project had included Iran and, maybe, one of the ex-Soviet republics.
This process is insecure for Americans, for intergovernmental relationships between USA and Iran are still bad, even though some signs of improvement are visible. George Bush`s administration has reopened Economic Cooperation Office in Tehran not so long ago; US presidential candidate Barack Obama supports dialog with Iran, and the EU has never hidden an interest in doing business with Tehran.
"In my opinion, Iran doesn`t have enough gas reserves for exportation. Maybe there is sufficient for their internal purposes, but this energy-generating product is imported mostly from Turkmenistan. No matter what further researches might discover, Iran will have to give up on nuclear technology, before they start dialog with the West", believes Ebel.
While the debates on whether the Nabucco and South Stream gas pipelines will ever be constructed (as previously announced) are present on economic and energy forums all around the world, these issues don`t seem to concern Serbian media much. Website Energyobserver.com and its editor-in-chief Sijka Pistolova are the only one that have launched an information which confirms that Russia, as a result of insufficient gas reserves, will probably give up on South Stream, or at least on its extension from Bulgaria, through Serbia, Hungary, Austria to Italy. Extension to Greece is unquestionable.
Uncompromising acceptance of Russian demands is apparently present in national media, and the proponents of that opinion accent that insisting on Serbia`s Petrol Industry sell price increase might dislodge Russians and South Stream from Serbia. Experts, however, suggest that the reason for Russia`s eventual abandonment would most probably be the lack of their own gas reserves for transportation.
Notable majority of Serbian media did not report on these events. Furthermore, nobody considers Serbia`s position under these circumstances, and at the same time, Serbia sells 51 percent of national Petrol Industry` shares for 400 million euros only.
Speaking of Serbia and its participation in the South Stream project, Ebel believes that Serbia could count on connection to Nabucco gas pipeline after accessing the EU, also adding that Russian-European project has no alternatives. In the meantime, regional integration with Hungary, Romania, and Croatia is the only thing that remains at the moment.
No Balkan country (not related to South Stream or Nabucco) has no particular alternative to Russian gas. Certain autonomy has Croatia only, because this country has recently begun building a massive terminal for liquid gas on the island of Krk, where would be delivered gas from Algeria and Mediterranean region.
"I`m not sure if Serbia could find any alternative in short period of time. It is possible, yet expensive. The right question is will Serbia succeed in resisting Russian domination, i.e. will Serbia be able to bear that. Russia is dealing with ever more internal energy demand and it is not possible to count on industrial development without satisfying these needs", says Ebel.
Nabucco gas pipeline route will range from Azerbaijan and Georgia, via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary to Austria. Its purpose would be to supply the EU with gas, as an alternative to Russian sources of energy.
South Stream gas pipeline route would range from Russia, via Black Sea, Bulgaria, after which one extension is proposed to pass across Greece toward Adriatic Sea, and the other section via Serbia, Hungary, Austria, and Slovenia to Italy. By constructing this pipeline, Russia intends to avoid strategically important Ukraine. Almost every Russian gas pipeline passes through Ukraine, and these two neighbouring countries are facing with problematic intergovernmental relationship.
In his report, recently presented at round table organised by US Embassy in Belgrade, Ebel describes circumstances on energy issue in Russia, after conflict in Georgia. Although the report claims that Russia occasionally refused gas and oil exportation for geopolitical reasons, American experts believe that Russia offers stability, safety and diversity in supplying, and, moreover, it`s not related to Persian Gulf.
Ebel also stresses that Russia, however, cannot be considered as confident gas and oil supplier for good.
"If Russia recognises the interruption of gas exportation as its national interest, it will be realised. The European Union, being aware of distinctive dependency on Russian gas and oil, has learnt lesson in 2006 when natural gas supplies were reduced, which allegedly had nothing to do with Russia, but Ukraine as transit country. Russia refused to deliver gas to Ukraine, which rejected an agreement on gas supply for 2006 which regulates market prices for delivered gas. Ukraine has used supplies for heating, which means that deliveries for Europe were reduced. Stability and diversity in energy supplying has thus become top story in Brussels", it is said in Robert Ebel`s report, in which he concludes that excessive gas and oil generation has endangered the survival of Russian oil and gas fields.
* Published: 2008/10/17
