This also concerns Russia`s imperial ambitions, whose Head of the State instead of polite congratulations has bespoken to the new White House lodger that Russians "are not born as anti-Americans", hoping that "newly formed administration will take a direction toward full cooperation with Russia". In the light of Georgian crisis and U.S. pushing to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, as well as in placing anti-missile shields in Poland and Czech Republic, it is clear that affectations in relations between Moscow and Washington are expected.
First, Barack Obama will have to face with issues that have, paradoxically, led him to electoral victory - global financial crisis which has struck America at its beginning. Little bit forgotten Israeli-Palestinian peace process and success assurance in Afghanistan are also top priorities, as well as "Red Latin America", China`s and India`s economic and military consolidation.
Javier Solana, EU`s High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, has also announced new favourable conditions, saying that "an obvious relief feels in European cities, due to new American President election". Solana has also underlined that new transatlantic partnership and particularly "complete redefinition of relations toward Russia" will be discussed, including many other issues that were disregarded by George Bush`s administration up to now.
Obama is very well aware of problematic international relations, full of contradictions, and that every problem has to be approached from different points of view in order to be understood properly. In one of his books, The Audacity of Hope, Senator Barack Obama has sent a message to Americans that "what they need are glasses with high dioptre", so they could understand that "world around them isn`t black and white". Like no other individual on the Planet, destiny of all mankind is determined by American President, and that precisely is responsibility Barack Obama will face with.
Winston Churchill, well-known British Prime Minister, has once said: "Be sure that America will do the right thing in the end, after all other options have been depleted".
It seems that Bush Junior has done that already. Dreams and hopes are now in hands of Obama and his working team, and challenge list for "the most popular political star in the past 50 years" (apart from Pope John Paul II) is extremely large, and it will soon become clear that inexperienced Obama is mature enough to deal with extremely important task - changing the world!
Since the Vietnam War, America has reached the lowest level of reputation and influence, and even traditional allies have alienated from conservative Bush`s political and military adventure.
"Obama is seen as a politician that is devoted to EU`s and transatlantic relations in general consolidation", believes Daniel Korski, of the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former adviser to the US State Department.
"Europeans are yearning for changes as much as Americans, and that indeed may make a certain pressure on Obama", explains John Glenn, of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Obama critics say that he, however, has no interests in Europe, accenting that in four years, during Obama`s presidency of the Senate`s Subcommittee on European Affairs, not a single hearing has been assembled.
Afghanistan will remain the key matter for NATO in the course of next couple of years. Troupes disposal from Iraq to Afghanistan is prepared, as it was previously planned by Bush at the end of his term of office. It considers a soldiers transfer from Iraq to Afghanistan, and Obama has set up a 16 months period to do so.
"Afghanistan is real test for NATO future and Obama will certainly ask for Europe`s more devoted engagement", believes Glenn.
Relations with Russia will be carefully observed. Speaking of Russia, Obama has tried to avoid an aggressive action in his appearances. His intention in general is to work together with Russia, if it is possible, instead of insisting on an attitude which refers to Russia as Cold war enemy. On the other hand, EU has diverse approaches toward Russia, and so Nordic and Eastern Europe countries stand for tougher one, while France and Germany traditionally keep very close relations with Russia. These countries support negotiations with Moscow on "new partnership", which have been stopped for six months due to the Georgian conflict.
Obama supports NATO expansion, yet it is clear that he will face with some difficulties in convincing several European partners, which disagree with America, to accept Alliance enlargement. This relates to Germany, France and Italy, which fear that Georgia`s and Ukraine`s approach to NATO might worsen their relations with Kremlin.
The additional problem concerns European efforts in developing its own security infrastructure, to which the United States have traditionally been reserved. American administration does not support this in general, for it directly endangers NATO primacy in terms of European defence policy.
Regardless to Obama`s victory, few eastern European countries are in fear of loosing privileged relations with the White House, inherited from Bush`s administration term of office. Eastern European countries are now considered to be more pro-American than the countries of "old Europe".
This distinction inside the EU was even more provoked by hard line Republicans, particularly Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld. The other one has even insisted on "New Europe", as an opposition to "Old Europe", when it concerns war in Iraq or anti-missile defence bases in Poland and Czech Republic. A large number of Eastern European countries have unconditionally supported American intentions, while EU primal members have been either restrained or against. This is one of challenges Obama will have to face with.
Considering Balkans, analysts agree that Obama`s approach on that issue might be more careful and attentive. First, Obama has chosen Joseph Biden to be a Vice President, a Democrat who has been ahead of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations in the past three decades and who is extremely familiar with Balkan issues. It is still unknown who is seen as U.S. State Secretary, i.e. undersecretaries, who carry out U.S. official policy in practice. Various people are taken in consideration, but it is unlikely that Obama or his State Secretary will be focused on Serbia, unless in cases of an extreme circumstances.
Serbia is recognised only in regional context, and it certainly does not take a particular place in U.S. administration. State Department`s and National Safety Council`s official apparatus is what should consider Serbia most, not Obama`s or Biden`s temper. Not even State Secretary. When it comes to Western Balkans, after Croatia and Albania, NATO expansion will be focused on Montenegro and Macedonia, and eventually on Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, if it is what they opt for. Economic ties consolidation, European integrations, and full cooperation with the Hague Tribunal - these are U.S. administration priorities toward Balkan region.
Expectations from Obama are great. Maybe the most in the past half of the century. If he uses charm and good atmosphere in resolving some of the major problems from inherited agenda, Obama will prove that faith in him was justified.
