By CEV magazine team

British Telecom is about to eliminate approximately 10.000 workplaces in the course of an ongoing year, as it is defined by the cost reduction plan. This company employs, directly and indirectly, about 160.000 people, and, according to the Reuters agency, it has already announced that 4.000 workers have been dismissed, hoping to stop the number on 10.000 workplaces due to the natural rotation of the labour force. Dismissal trend has attacked Germany, USA and Japan, and some Serbian employers are taking the advantage of these circumstances for dismissing their workers, although there`s absolutely no justified reason for that.

United States have registered more than ten million of unemployed, which is the highest number of people without job since 2001. Japan has declared recession and announced the dismissal of ten thousands of people, particularly in car industry, which has been mainly caused by the global crisis. BMW from Germany has also fired thousands... There are hundreds of examples of this kind all over the world, and all of them are motivated by the global financial crisis, unlike in Serbia, where employers have a good excuse for discharging due to the investment banks collapse.

So far, nobody knows exactly how many people have been fired under these excuses, but the tension exists and the fear spreads all over. Employers estimate that more than 120.000 people in Serbia risk to be dismissed, unless National government takes specific measures to prevent it. In the Confederation of Autonomous Trade Unions of Serbia say that they will struggle against illegal and "savage" dismissing people, and against mass employees reduction which has already been announced by several employers so as to keep people in constant panic and to exploit labour force - and all that because of the global financial crisis.

Branislav Canak, president of the "Nezavisnost" Trade Union, says that it is incomprehensible that banks and financial institutions perish abroad, and that in Serbia they remain stable, while people working in manufacture are being fired before the crisis has overtaken their sector, or even factories.

"There are so many malversations and manipulations, and our government has to get a grip immediately in order to avoid social fury. Our country is still not capable in providing more workplaces, and dismissal is considered to be something like death penalty for large number of people. If so, Serbian authorities are obligated to do whatever it takes to stop further dismissals," explains Canak.

Stevan Avramovic, Chief of Serbian Association of Employers and national Social-Economic Council, says that because of the demand reduction on European and global market the first to be attacked are national export companies. He also recommends how to surpass the current crisis.

"Government could reduce income taxes. Finally, public services have to be properly organised, for only they have managed to make a loss to the amount of 1.38 billions of dinars, while at the same time their salaries have been increased," explains Avramovic.

The economist Danilo Sukovic expects the continuation of dismissals in Serbia, if the crisis endures and deepens. Comments, such as that Serbia will make profit from financial crisis, reminds Sukovic on statements from the beginning of the 90s, when Serbia was under sanctions during which some politicians tried to convince their people that isolation can be useful for Serbia.

Sukovic believes that more than 400.000 people are unemployed in Serbia, as National Employment Service`s statistics point so. He explains that the methodology of stipulating the number of people without job has been modified, and that the new one is not precise enough in showing the exact number of unemployed. Sukovic, moreover, thinks that the public service privatisation will affect more unemployed.

Government is thus determined to spend less money, yet still insufficient. Discharges are also expected. As Branislav Canak says, discharge is taken as death penalty.

"Our country is incapable in carrying out some kind of a new deal, which has become an interesting issue lately. First of all, a new deal during 30s referred to something completely different and under completely different circumstances. Then, a government was estimated to be a main employer, which organised giving work to the unemployed. Serbia has a large number of employees working under control of the state. We hire 430.000 workers in public sector. It`s more than France and Great Britain have. Saying that state hires people smells like socialism," says Canak.

The proof that Serbia is incapable in taking care of its citizen is a fact that, not only that it cannot hire, but is also a European record-holder in inefficiency in organising private sector for employment stimulating. What happens when one is left without job?

According to the law, unemployed go to the National Employment Service. Money that is received there is not enough for surviving. And, what then? European alimentation standard is 26 weeks, which leaves enough time for unemployed to find another work, if he or she actively searches for it. If not, an average European country takes care of an average unemployed for 60 weeks. After that period of time, one has to accept a job that was proposed by the state, otherwise an unemployed looses all benefits and social care.

Nobody has precise facts on that issue in Serbia. An average worker, if looses a job, does not have any guarantees that a new job will be found, and terms for getting a job are not even mentioned. It means that Serbia meets recession without any preparations.

In this very delicate moment national government decides to call the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help, in order to get political alibi for covering up weaknesses and to let know something that everyone already does - that the government needs to economise in the course of an upcoming year. Croatian government plans a zero rate of deficit and to freeze salaries and pensions, while situation in Belgrade is different. Serbian officials support pension increase for ten percent, and improbably high salaries in public services are being frozen. As Minister of Economy Mladjan Dinkic says, "government has opted for deficit, but it is the back-up structure that we need".

The main problem in Serbia is that the entire agreement with the  IMF is based on the conclusion that there will not be recession in our country, which is, naturally, not true. If productivity falls, national government has right to call in 520 million euros of help from the IMF. But what if it is not enough? What if it is not enough even for the pension increase promised during political campaign? No politician wants to pose these questions, or to answer them.