Judging by the summit results, Ireland has achieved great diplomatic victory. At the recent summit, the EU leaders have agreed that in case the Lisbon Treaty takes effect every EU member state will have its member in the European Commission. Besides, Ireland was guaranteed upon its request to independently decide on its military neutrality, fiscal policy, rights of employees, issues related to education and family care as well as existing national law on abortion ban.
These issues were the key ones during the campaign prior to the Irish referendum in June when the majority of the Ireland citizens voted against institutional reform and that way "froze" the Lisbon process.
In exchange for these areas guarantees, the Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen has pledged to schedule another referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and upon that also ratify this document by the end of October 2009 when the office of the current European Commission members ends.
So many concessions made and achieved to Ireland have amazed many analysts, especially regarding the number of commissioners in the European Commission. Having in mind the enlargement of the Union, all the EU governments have previously agreed that it was necessary to reduce the European Commission and make it a small executive body consisting of 15 members. Furthermore, media have been reporting that several national governments under no circumstances wished to give up this kind of reform of the current 27-member Commission.
The leaders of several countries, such as Belgium, are not satisfied with going back to the existing system "one commissioner - one country," while the leaders of mainly new EU members, like the Romanian President Traian Basescu and the Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, have openly supported this Irish request.
"I am particularly pleased that our requirement of keeping a commissioner for Ireland will be met", said Brian Cowen after the EU Council admitting the whole compromise has been "the principal achievement for Ireland" that has been realised thanks to "very important compromises of the others."
Agreement on the Irish requirements also contains confirmation that the number of the Euro-parliamentarians in the European Parliament will increase from the current 736 to 754, which means three seats more than it has been foreseen by the former Lisbon Treaty.
However, in case the Treaty was not ratified earlier, 736 members of the European Parliament would be chosen again at the next year European elections. Upon the ratification, 12 EU countries will get additional seats in the Parliament, while Germany will lose three seats.
At the European elections also will appear new political party that is against the Lisbon Treaty and the foundation of which has been announced by Declan Ganley, the leader of the Irish No Campaign.
"This is a betrayal of the Irish people. That Cowen would do a deal with the French president to disregard our vote just beggars belief," said Ganley.
However, thanks to the global economic crisis great chances are for the Lisbon Treaty to get the Irish support this time and open the doors to the EU institutions reform in order to facilitate new members accepting, including the countries of the Western Balkans.
It seems that Croatia will rejoice ratification the most since its EU joining has been mentioned as an important one during the acceptance proceedings of the co-called "Irish protocol" that would contain all the legal guarantees.
In order to avoid repeated Treaty ratification in 24 state that have already done it, the French President Sarkozy has pointed out during the next enlargement in "2010 or 2011, the moment probably Croatia will join us," this country`s accession document will include guarantees given to Ireland added in the form of the "Irish Protocol."
Beside Ireland, the Czech Republic and Poland should also ratify the Lisbon Treaty. However, supporters of the European institutions reform maintain currently there are even greater hopes for the Lisbon Treaty not to experience the fate of the EU Constitution that was rejected at the 2005 referendum by the citizens of France and The Netherlands.
However, Eurosceptic Polish President Lech Kaczynski has promised the Lisbon Treaty would be ratified in his country also in case the Irish voters supported this EU document at the new referendum. Ratification process in the Czech Parliament has been postponed once again while the President Vaclav Klaus has been openly pleading for rejection of the Treaty, unlike the Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek.
This process is the continuation of the European tradition that the opinion differences among countries are surpassed through negotiations and compromise.
This kind of tradition has been established 15 years ago when Denmark rejected the Maastricht Treaty. Copenhagen set forth four issues Danish people had not liked in the reforms package that other member states had taken in consideration. Therefore, Denmark ratified the Treaty with great majority at the repeated referendum. Ireland has gone through the similar process when the Treaty of Nice has been adopted.
Although the Irish "no", from the legal point of view, could put an end to the Lisbon Treaty, the European leaders have proved the cooperation based on mutual concessions has still been the fundamental value of the European Union that is crucial for its survival.
* Nenad Radicevic is a foreign affairs journalist with Politika daily. CEV magazine is an online publication of the Centre for European Values
